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PRESS RELEASES

Current Economic Situation, October 2024

  • DivisionEconomic Policy Bureau - Economic Analysis Division
  • DateOctober 18, 2024
  • Tel+82 44 215 2750

In August, industrial production, services production and retail sales went up, while facilities investment and construction investment went down.

                                                                                                                                                

Despite decreases in construction production (-1.2% m-o-m, -9.0% y-o-y), the entire production moved up (+1.2% m-o-m, +1.1% y-o-y) as industrial production (+4.1% m-o-m, +3.8% y-o-y) and services production (+0.2% m-o-m, +0.9% y-o-y) increased.

 

Retail sales climbed up (+1.7% m-o-m, -1.3% y-o-y), while facilities investment (-5.4% m-o-m, +7.8% y-o-y) and construction investment (-1.2% m-o-m, -9.0% y-o-y) dropped.  

 

In September, exports grew by 7.5% from a year ago, thanks to the expanded exports of the IT sector including semiconductors. Average daily exports surged by 12.9% in September compared to the same month of last year.

 

The consumer sentiment index (CSI) in September fell by 0.8 points month-on-month to 100.0. The composite business sentiment index (CBSI) dropped by 1.3%p to 91.2 and the CBSI outlook for October declined by 0.1 points month-on-month to 92.6.

 

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index for August went down by -0.1 points compared to that of last month and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index decreased by 0.1 points.

 

In September, job growth saw an increase and consumer price growth declined.

 

The economy added 144 thousand jobs year-on-year and the unemployment rate decreased by 0.2%p from a year ago to 2.1%.

 

The consumer price index (CPI) growth fell to 1.6% m-o-m while the CPI excluding the food and energy sectors increased by 2.0%, with the index excluding the agricultural and petroleum sectors up by 1.8%. The CPI for basic necessities moved up by 1.5%.

 

In September, stock prices dropped due to rising tensions in the Middle East, while Korean Treasury Bond yields plummeted following the U.S. Fed’s interest rate cuts, and the Korean won strengthened.

 

In September, housing prices continued to rise (+0.17% m-o-m) and Jeonse[1] prices climbed (+0.19% m-o-m), but the pace of growth declined.

 

With the Korean economy has recently been experiencing an expanding trend of price stability, the recovery momentum has been sustained mainly driven by robust export and manufacturing. While a moderate domestic demand recovery has been observed, particularly in facility investment and services, the pace of recovery varies across sectors.

 

Although the global economy is showing an overall recovery trend, mainly driven by the upturn in trade and the shift in monetary policies in major countries, the pace of recovery differs across regions. At the same time, geopolitical risks, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the potential escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, along with volatility in commodity prices and concerns about economic slowdowns in major economies, are contributing to increased uncertainty.

 

Under these circumstances, the government will strive to anchor price stability and promptly implement key policy tasks for supporting people’s livelihoods, such as providing targeted support for small business owners and boost domestic consumption. Also, the ‘Dynamic Economy Roadmap’ will continue to be proceeded aiming to improve people’s quality of life and enhance the sustainability of the Korean economy.

 



[1] lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments





Key Statistics



Employment


 

2022

2023

2024

Annual

Annual

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Number of employed 
(million)

28.09

28.42

28.70

28.76

28.70

28.09

27.74

28.04

28.40

28.69

28.91

28.91

28.86

28.80

  28.84

Employment 

rate  (%)

62.1

62.6

63.2

63.3

 63.1

 61.7

61.0

61.6

62.4

63.0

63.5

63.5

63.3

63.2

   63.3

(Seasonally adjusted)

 62.1

  62.6

 62.7 

62.7

 62.5

 62.4

 62.8

 63.0

62.8

62.9

62.6

62.6

62.6

62.7

   62.8




Consumer Price Index

                                                                                         (%)

 

2023

2024

 May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

y-o-y

3.4

2.7

2.4

 3.4

 3.7

3.8

 3.3

  3.2

 2.8

3.1

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.4

2.6

2.0

1.6

m-o-m

0.3

0.0

0.1

 0.9

 0.5

0.4

 -0.5

  0.0

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.2

0.3

0.4

0.1

 




Retail Sales

(Percentage change from the previous period, %)

 

2022

2023

  2024

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3 Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Jun

Jul¹

  Aug¹

Retail sales

-0.3

-0.9

-0.7

0.8

-1.5

-1.5

0.6

-0.5

-1.9

0.4

-0.5

-0.8

0.9

-2.0

   1.7

(y-o-y)

-

2.6

-0.2

-0.9

-2.3

-

-0.8

-0.7

-2.7

-1.9

-2.1

-2.9

-3.6

-2.2

  -1.3

1. Preliminary





Facility Investment Index

(Percentage change from the previous period, %)

 

2022

2023

                                                 2024

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

  Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Jun

Jul¹

Aug¹

Facility investment index

2.5

1.8

-2.2

9.8

-1.6

-4.9

-8.6

1.5

-1.9

5.0

-3.8

-0.2

3.5

10.2

-5.4

(y-o-y)

-

-0.7

-3.6

5.6

9.1

-

-1.9

-1.3

-9.9

-6.0

0.3

-1.5

-3.3

18.7

7.8

1. Preliminary

  



Construction Completed

 (Percentage change from the previous period, %)

 

2022

2023

                                   2024

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

   Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Jun

Jul¹

Aug¹

Construction Completed

(Constant)

2.8

-1.5

1.5

1.5

4.3

7.4

2.8

1.1

1.1

-2.5

4.9

-6.2

-1.5

-0.7

-1.2

(y-o-y)

2.7

-1.7

2.0

3.6

6.7

-

11.5

8.7

10.1

0.6

4.1

-3.0

-6.0

-5.2

-9.0

1. Preliminary





Exports and Imports

 (US$ billion, y-o-y, %)

 

2022

2023

2024

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3


Q4

Q1

Q2

    Q3


Sep

Jul

Aug

Sep

Exports

683.58

632.23

151.22

155.78

157.10

54.65

168.12

163.40

171.51

173.76

57.26

57.73

58.77

(y-o-y, %)

6.1

-7.5

-12.8

-12.0

-9.7

-4.4

5.7

8.1

10.1

10.6

13.5

11.0

7.5

Average daily exports

2.51

2.34

2.24

2.33

2.29

2.60

2.49

2.44

2.58

2.54

2.29

2.46

2.94

Imports

731.37

642.59

174.04

159.25

150.72

50.97

158.56

154.86

156.96

160.44

53.85

54.07

52.12

(y-o-y, %)

18.9

-12.1

-2.2

-13.2

-21.6

-16.5

-10.7

-11.1

-1.4

6.2

10.5

6.0

2.2

Average daily imports

2.68

2.38

2.58

2.38

2.20

2.60

2.35

2.31

2.36

2.34

2.15

2.30

2.61





Industrial Production (Mining, Manufacturing, Electricity and Gas Production)

                (Percentage change from the previous period, %)



2022

2023

 2024

Annual

Annual

  Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

May

Jun

Jul¹

Aug¹

Total Production2

m-o-m,

q-o-q

-

-

0.4

2.6

1.3

2.2

-0.3

1.1

-0.7

0.7

-3.9

4.1

y-o-y

1.0

-2.6

-8.3

-6.1

-0.4

4.8

5.9

4.8

4.2

3.8

5.2

3.8

Manufacturing

Production

m-o-m,

q-o-q

-

-

0.3

3.0

1.3

2.2

-0.5

1.5

-0.6

0.7

-4.1

4.1

y-o-y

0.9

-2.6

-8.7

-6.2

-0.2

5.1

6.2

5.0

4.4

3.9

5.4

3.7

Shipments (m-o-m, q-o-q)

0.3

-0.5

0.1

2.6

-0.8

2.0

-3.0

1.5

-0.8

2.6

-6.4

5.7

Inventory(m-o-m, q-o-q)

4.1

-2.1

3.4

-0.8

2.4

-6.6

1.0

-2.3

-0.1

-2.9

2.9

1.4

Production capacity (y-o-y)

-0.5

0.1

-0.9

-0.8

0.0

2.1

1.6

1.1

1.2

0.8

0.8

0.9

Average operation ratio4

74.5

71.9

70.6

72.0

72.3

72.5

72.7

73.5

72.9

73.8

71.1

74.3

  1. Preliminary

  2. Mining, Manufacturing, Electricity and Gas Production

  3. End-point (month, quarter, and year)

  4. Average operation ratio for the month (or quarter)




  

Service Output

           (Percentage change from the previous period, %)

 

2021

2022

2023

                            2024

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3 Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

 Q1

Q2

Jun

Jul¹

Aug¹

Service output

5.0

1.2

2.5

0.1

2.7

7.0

0.6

3.3

1.6

0.3

3.1

1.0

0.0

1.0

0.3

 0.8

-0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

    1. Preliminary




Composite Indices of Coincident and Leading Indicators

                                                                                           (Points)

 

2023

 2024

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun¹

Jul¹

Aug¹

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index

 99.9

99.9

99.8

99.9

100.1

99.8

99.7

99.1

99.0

98.3

98.2

m-o-m (points)

0.1

0.0

-0.1

0.1

0.2

-0.3

-0.1

-0.6

-0.1

-0.7

-0.1

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index

99.8

100.1

100.2

100.2

100.4

100.2

100.5

100.5

100.7

100.7

100.6

m-o-m (points)

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.2

-0.2

0.3

0.0

0.2

0.0

-0.1

1. Preliminary


 




Please refer to the attached files.


Ministry of Economy and Finance
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