The consumer price index (CPI) in September 2024 rose by 1.6% y-o-y, down 0.4%p from August (2.0%), reaching the lowest rate of increase in 3 years and 7 months (43 months) since February 2021 (1.4%). Despite the prolonged heatwave causing a rise in vegetable prices, overall price stability continues owing to the significant drop in petroleum production prices, which fell sharply by 4.1% m-o-m and by 7.6% y-o-y.
Consumer Price Index
|
(%) |
2023 |
2024 |
|
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
|
y-o-y |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
2.8 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
|
m-o-m |
0.5 |
0.4 |
-0.5 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
-0.2 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core inflation rate, which shows the trend in prices, appears to be stable, with an increase of 2.0% y-o-y (2.1% in August). The CPI for living necessities, composed of items with a high share of household spending, also climbed up by 1.5% y-o-y (2.1% in August), showing the lowest rate of increase in 44 months since January 2021 (0.8%).
Core Inflation
|
(y-o-y, %) |
2023 |
2024 |
|
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
|
CPI excluding food and energy prices |
3.1 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
|
CPI excluding agricultural
product and petroleum prices |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
CPI for living necessities
|
(y-o-y, %) |
2023 |
2024 |
|
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
|
CPI for living
necessities |
4.4 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
Going forward, the inflation rate is expected to remain stable around 2%, as long as there are no external shocks such as extreme weather events or rising global oil prices. However, given the potential for fluctuations in global oil prices and rising agricultural prices due to abnormal weather conditions, the government will remain vigilant and continue to prioritize achieving price stability. In particular, in order to stabilize the supply of cabbage, which has recently seen strong prices increases, the government plans to release 6,000 tons of reserves early and expand imports by 4,000 tons, adding a total of 10,000 tons to the market. The temporary quota tariff on cabbage and radishes, set to expire at the end of this month, will also be extended until the end of the year. At the same time, the government will continuously monitor price trends for key items and respond proactively to any inflationary pressures.
Please refer to the attached files.
