Current Economic Situation, November 2023

 

 

Industrial and Services Production, Retail Sales, Facilities and Construction Investment All Up

 

 

In September, industrial and services production, retail sales, facilities and construction investment all saw an increase.

                                                                                                                                                

Entire production grew (up 1.1% m-o-m and up 2.8% y-o-y) as services production climbed up (up 0.4% m-o-m and up 2.2% y-o-y) and industrial production increased (up 1.8% m-o-m and up 3.0% y-o-y).

 

Retail sales (up 0.2% m-o-m, down 1.9% y-o-y), facilities investment (up 8.7% m-o-m and down 5.7% y-o-y) and construction investment all jumped (up 2.5% m-o-m and up 14.5% y-o-y).

 

In October, exports went up by 5.1 percent from a year ago, thanks to the expanded exports of automobiles, vessels, and petroleum products. Average daily exports moved up by 7.6 percent in October compared to the same month of last year.

 

The consumer sentiment index (CSI) in October fell by 1.6 points month-on-month to 98.1. The business survey index (BSI) for the entire sector decreased 3 points from a month ago to 70 and the BSI outlook for November dropped 4 points to 69.

 

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index for September fell by 0.1 points, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index went up by 0.1 points.

 

In October, job growth was even stronger while consumer prices rose at a faster pace.                 

 

The economy added 346,000 jobs year-on-year and the unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points from a year ago to 2.1 percent.

 

The consumer price index (CPI) rose at a faster pace by 3.8 percent (up 0.1% m-o-m) while the CPI excluding the food and energy sectors increased by 3.2 percent with the index excluding the agricultural and petroleum sectors up by 3.6 percent. The CPI for basic necessities moved up by 4.6 percent.

 

In October, stock prices dropped, the won weakened and Korean Treasury bond yields climbed up due to the rise in US treasury yields and the Middle East’s political unrest.

 

In October, housing price growth rose at a slower pace (down 0.05% m-o-m) and Jeonse[1] prices rose at a faster pace (up 0.04% m-o-m).

 

Amidst the recent moderation in the inflation, uncertainties still surrounded the Korean economy due to supply factors. Signs of economic recovery are gradually emerging, mainly driven by the rebound in manufacturing production and export, including semiconductors, and continued improvements in the service sector and employment.

 

Internationally, alongside the anticipations for the global IT industry’s growth and a surge in tourists visiting Korea, concerns still remain over the prolonged high interest rates. At the same time, uncertainties linger as the political unrest in the Middle East in addition to the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbates the volatility of commodity prices.

 

The government will meticulously manage risks at home and abroad as well as improve its fundamental economic structure, while placing top priority on stabilizing prices and people’s livelihood while ramping up the country’s domestic consumption, investment and export.

 

Key Statistics

Employment

	2022								2023
	Annual	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Number of employed  (million)	28.09	28.48	28.47	28.41	28.39	28.42	28.42	27.81	27.36	27.71	28.22	28.43	28.84	28.81	28.69	28.68	28.70	28.76
Employment  rate  (%)	62.1	62.9	62.9	62.8	62.7	62.7	62.7	61.3	60.3	61.1	62.2	62.7	63.5	63.5	63.2	63.1	63.1	63.3
(Seasonally adjusted)	62.1	62.2	62.2	62.3	62.2	62.1	62.1	62.0	62.0	62.6	62.7	62.6	62.8	62.7	62.5	62.6	62.7	62.7

Consumer Price Index

                                                                                         (%)

 

Retail Sales

(Percentage change from the previous period, %)

	2020	2021					2022					2023
	Annual	Annual	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Annual	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3¹	Sep¹
Retail sales	-0.1	5.8	2.1	2.4	1.2	0.2	-0.3	-1.2	-0.4	0.6	-1.4	1.1	-0.3	-2.5	0.2
(y-o-y)	-	-	6.3	5.0	5.4	6.6	-	2.6	-0.2	-0.9	-2.3	-0.4	-0.2	-2.7	-1.9

1. Preliminary

Facility Investment Index

(Percentage change from the previous period, %)

	2021					2022¹					2023¹
	Annual	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Annual	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3
Facility investment index	9.3	6.8	0.9	-3.0	-0.2	3.3	-4.2	1.6	7.0	2.4	-5.0	0.5	-2.7
(y-o-y)	-	15.6	14.0	4.2	4.0	-	-7.3	-6.7	4.4	6.5	5.9	4.7	-4.7

1. Preliminary

  

Construction Completed

 (Percentage change from the previous period, %)

	2021					2022¹					2023¹
	Annual	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Annual	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3
Construction Completed (Constant)	-1.6	-0.1	-0.8	-2.0	1.4	-2.8	-2.5	-0.6	-0.1	1.3	1.3	-0.8	2.2
(y-o-y)	-	-2.5	-1.1	-1.5	-1.5	-	-3.8	-3.7	-2.0	-1.8	1.9	1.7	4.0

1. Preliminary

Exports and Imports

 (US$ billion, y-o-y, %)

	2021					2022						2023
	Annual	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Annual	Q1	Q2	Q3	Oct	Q4	Q1	Q2	Q3	Oct
Exports	644.40	146.40	156.73	164.54	176.73	683.58	173.40	177.11	174.02	52.43	159.05	151.29	155.81	157.17	55.08
(y-o-y, %)	25.7	12.5	42.0	26.5	24.5	6.1	18.4	13.0	5.8	-5.8	-10.0	-12.7	-12.0	-9.7	5.1
Average daily exports	2.36	2.22	2.27	2.40	2.54	2.51	2.67	2.59	2.52	2.44	2.27	2.24	2.33	2.29	2.62
Imports	615.09	136.60	149.23	156.89	172.37	731.37	177.90	183.53	192.30	59.17	177.64	174.01	159.32	150.64	53.46
(y-o-y, %)	31.5	12.4	37.7	37.5	39.4	18.9	30.2	23.0	22.6	9.9	3.1	-2.2	-13.2	-21.7	-9.7
Average daily imports	2.25	2.07	2.16	2.29	2.48	2.68	2.74	2.68	2.79	2.75	2.54	2.58	2.38	2.20	2.55

Industrial Production (Mining, Manufacturing, Electricity and Gas Production)

                (Percentage change from the previous period, %)

  1. Preliminary

  2. Mining, Manufacturing, Electricity and Gas Production

  3. End-point (month, quarter, and year)

  4. Average operation ratio for the month (or quarter)

  

Service Output

           (Percentage change from the previous period, %)

    1. Preliminary

Composite Indices of Coincident and Leading Indicators

                                                                                           (Points)

	2022			2023
	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun¹	Jul¹	Aug¹	Sep¹
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index	101.1	100.5	99.8	99.3	99.6	100.1	100.3	100.3	100.1	99.6	99.4	99.3
m-o-m (points)	-0.1	-0.6	-0.7	-0.5	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0	-0.2	-0.5	-0.2	-0.1
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index	100.3	100.1	99.6	99.2	99.0	98.7	98.5	98.6	98.9	99.3	99.3	99.4
m-o-m (points)	0.0	-0.2	-0.5	-0.4	-0.2	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.0	0.1

1. Preliminary

 

Please refer to the attached files.