Current Economic Situation, November 2023
Industrial and Services Production, Retail Sales, Facilities and Construction Investment All Up
In September, industrial and services production, retail sales, facilities and construction investment all saw an increase.
Entire production grew (up 1.1% m-o-m and up 2.8% y-o-y) as services production climbed up (up 0.4% m-o-m and up 2.2% y-o-y) and industrial production increased (up 1.8% m-o-m and up 3.0% y-o-y).
Retail sales (up 0.2% m-o-m, down 1.9% y-o-y), facilities investment (up 8.7% m-o-m and down 5.7% y-o-y) and construction investment all jumped (up 2.5% m-o-m and up 14.5% y-o-y).
In October, exports went up by 5.1 percent from a year ago, thanks to the expanded exports of automobiles, vessels, and petroleum products. Average daily exports moved up by 7.6 percent in October compared to the same month of last year.
The consumer sentiment index (CSI) in October fell by 1.6 points month-on-month to 98.1. The business survey index (BSI) for the entire sector decreased 3 points from a month ago to 70 and the BSI outlook for November dropped 4 points to 69.
The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index for September fell by 0.1 points, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index went up by 0.1 points.
In October, job growth was even stronger while consumer prices rose at a faster pace.
The economy added 346,000 jobs year-on-year and the unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points from a year ago to 2.1 percent.
The consumer price index (CPI) rose at a faster pace by 3.8 percent (up 0.1% m-o-m) while the CPI excluding the food and energy sectors increased by 3.2 percent with the index excluding the agricultural and petroleum sectors up by 3.6 percent. The CPI for basic necessities moved up by 4.6 percent.
In October, stock prices dropped, the won weakened and Korean Treasury bond yields climbed up due to the rise in US treasury yields and the Middle East’s political unrest.
In October, housing price growth rose at a slower pace (down 0.05% m-o-m) and Jeonse[1] prices rose at a faster pace (up 0.04% m-o-m).
Amidst the recent moderation in the inflation, uncertainties still surrounded the Korean economy due to supply factors. Signs of economic recovery are gradually emerging, mainly driven by the rebound in manufacturing production and export, including semiconductors, and continued improvements in the service sector and employment.
Internationally, alongside the anticipations for the global IT industry’s growth and a surge in tourists visiting Korea, concerns still remain over the prolonged high interest rates. At the same time, uncertainties linger as the political unrest in the Middle East in addition to the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbates the volatility of commodity prices.
The government will meticulously manage risks at home and abroad as well as improve its fundamental economic structure, while placing top priority on stabilizing prices and people’s livelihood while ramping up the country’s domestic consumption, investment and export.
[1] lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments
Key Statistics
Employment
|
2022 |
2023 |
Annual |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Number of employed
(million) |
28.09 |
28.48 |
28.47 |
28.41 |
28.39 |
28.42 |
28.42 |
27.81 |
27.36 |
27.71 |
28.22 |
28.43 |
28.84 |
28.81 |
28.69 |
28.68 |
28.70 |
28.76 |
Employment
rate (%) |
62.1 |
62.9 |
62.9 |
62.8 |
62.7 |
62.7 |
62.7 |
61.3 |
60.3 |
61.1 |
62.2 |
62.7 |
63.5 |
63.5 |
63.2 |
63.1 |
63.1 |
63.3 |
(Seasonally adjusted) |
62.1 |
62.2 |
62.2 |
62.3 |
62.2 |
62.1 |
62.1 |
62.0 |
62.0 |
62.6 |
62.7 |
62.6 |
62.8 |
62.7 |
62.5 |
62.6 |
62.7 |
62.7 |
Consumer Price Index
(%)
|
2022 |
2023 |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
y-o-y |
4.8 |
5.4 |
6.0 |
6.3 |
5.7 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.2 |
4.8 |
4.2 |
3.7 |
3.3 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
3.4 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
m-o-m |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
-0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
-0.1 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
Retail Sales
(Percentage change from the previous period, %)
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
Annual |
Annual |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Annual |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3¹ |
Sep¹ |
Retail sales |
-0.1 |
5.8 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
1.2 |
0.2 |
-0.3 |
-1.2 |
-0.4 |
0.6 |
-1.4 |
1.1 |
-0.3 |
-2.5 |
0.2 |
(y-o-y) |
- |
- |
6.3 |
5.0 |
5.4 |
6.6 |
- |
2.6 |
-0.2 |
-0.9 |
-2.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.2 |
-2.7 |
-1.9 |
1. Preliminary
Facility Investment Index
(Percentage change from the previous period, %)
|
2021 |
2022¹ |
2023¹ |
Annual |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Annual |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Facility investment index |
9.3 |
6.8 |
0.9 |
-3.0 |
-0.2 |
3.3 |
-4.2 |
1.6 |
7.0 |
2.4 |
-5.0 |
0.5 |
-2.7 |
(y-o-y) |
- |
15.6 |
14.0 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
- |
-7.3 |
-6.7 |
4.4 |
6.5 |
5.9 |
4.7 |
-4.7 |
1. Preliminary
Construction Completed
(Percentage change from the previous period, %)
|
2021 |
2022¹ |
2023¹ |
Annual |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Annual |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Construction Completed
(Constant) |
-1.6 |
-0.1 |
-0.8 |
-2.0 |
1.4 |
-2.8 |
-2.5 |
-0.6 |
-0.1 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
-0.8 |
2.2 |
(y-o-y) |
- |
-2.5 |
-1.1 |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
- |
-3.8 |
-3.7 |
-2.0 |
-1.8 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
4.0 |
1. Preliminary
Exports and Imports
(US$ billion, y-o-y, %)
|
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
Annual |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Annual |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Oct |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Oct |
Exports |
644.40 |
146.40 |
156.73 |
164.54 |
176.73 |
683.58 |
173.40 |
177.11 |
174.02 |
52.43 |
159.05 |
151.29 |
155.81 |
157.17 |
55.08 |
(y-o-y, %) |
25.7 |
12.5 |
42.0 |
26.5 |
24.5 |
6.1 |
18.4 |
13.0 |
5.8 |
-5.8 |
-10.0 |
-12.7 |
-12.0 |
-9.7 |
5.1 |
Average daily exports |
2.36 |
2.22 |
2.27 |
2.40 |
2.54 |
2.51 |
2.67 |
2.59 |
2.52 |
2.44 |
2.27 |
2.24 |
2.33 |
2.29 |
2.62 |
Imports |
615.09 |
136.60 |
149.23 |
156.89 |
172.37 |
731.37 |
177.90 |
183.53 |
192.30 |
59.17 |
177.64 |
174.01 |
159.32 |
150.64 |
53.46 |
(y-o-y, %) |
31.5 |
12.4 |
37.7 |
37.5 |
39.4 |
18.9 |
30.2 |
23.0 |
22.6 |
9.9 |
3.1 |
-2.2 |
-13.2 |
-21.7 |
-9.7 |
Average daily imports |
2.25 |
2.07 |
2.16 |
2.29 |
2.48 |
2.68 |
2.74 |
2.68 |
2.79 |
2.75 |
2.54 |
2.58 |
2.38 |
2.20 |
2.55 |
Industrial Production (Mining, Manufacturing, Electricity and Gas Production)
(Percentage change from the previous period, %)
|
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
Annual |
Annual |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3¹ |
Jul |
Aug¹ |
Sep¹ |
Total Production2 |
m-o-m,
q-o-q |
- |
- |
3.0 |
-1.9 |
-2.7 |
-6.1 |
-0.9 |
3.1 |
1.9 |
-2.0 |
5.2 |
1.8 |
y-o-y |
8.2 |
1.4 |
5.8 |
5.6 |
1.4 |
-6.4 |
-9.7 |
-7.4 |
-2.0 |
-8.1 |
-0.7 |
3.0 |
Manufacturing |
Production |
m-o-m,
q-o-q |
- |
- |
2.9 |
-1.9 |
-2.8 |
-6.4 |
-0.9 |
3.4 |
1.8 |
-2.2 |
5.4 |
1.9 |
y-o-y |
8.4 |
1.4 |
6.0 |
5.6 |
1.4 |
-6.7 |
-10.0 |
-7.7 |
2.1 |
-8.3 |
-0.8 |
3.0 |
Shipments (m-o-m, q-o-q) |
5.0 |
-0.1 |
1.1 |
-2.3 |
-0.3 |
-4.3 |
-0.1 |
2.7 |
0.1 |
-8.0 |
3.5 |
6.7 |
Inventory3 (m-o-m, q-o-q) |
13.7 |
4.6 |
-2.1 |
5.6 |
-1.1 |
2.2 |
3.1 |
-0.3 |
3.1 |
1.5 |
3.8 |
-2.2 |
Production capacity (y-o-y) |
2.0 |
-0.4 |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
-0.8 |
-2.3 |
-2.4 |
-1.3 |
-2.0 |
-1.7 |
-0.1 |
Average operation ratio4 |
74.8 |
74.8 |
78.8 |
75.9 |
74.2 |
69.9 |
70.6 |
71.8 |
72.1 |
69.9 |
73.2 |
73.2 |
1. Preliminary
2. Mining, Manufacturing, Electricity and Gas Production
3. End-point (month, quarter, and year)
4. Average operation ratio for the month (or quarter)
Service Output
(Percentage change from the previous period, %)
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
Annual |
Annual |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Annual |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3¹ |
Sep¹ |
Service output |
-2.0 |
5.0 |
1.1 |
2.3 |
0.4 |
2.6 |
6.7 |
0.6 |
3.0 |
1.7 |
0.2 |
1.2 |
-0.3 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
1. Preliminary
Composite Indices of Coincident and Leading Indicators
(Points)
|
2022 |
2023 |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun¹ |
Jul¹ |
Aug¹ |
Sep¹ |
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index |
101.1 |
100.5 |
99.8 |
99.3 |
99.6 |
100.1 |
100.3 |
100.3 |
100.1 |
99.6 |
99.4 |
99.3 |
m-o-m (points) |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
-0.7 |
-0.5 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.5 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index |
100.3 |
100.1 |
99.6 |
99.2 |
99.0 |
98.7 |
98.5 |
98.6 |
98.9 |
99.3 |
99.3 |
99.4 |
m-o-m (points) |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.5 |
-0.4 |
-0.2 |
-0.3 |
-0.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
1. Preliminary
Please refer to the attached files.