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Current Economic Situation, September 2022

  • DivisionEconomic Policy Bureau - Economic Analysis Division
  • DateSeptember 16, 2022
  • Tel+82 44 215 2731

Current Economic Situation, September 2022

 

Services Up, Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Facilities and Construction Investment Down

 



Services rose in July while manufacturing, retail sales, facilities and construction investment declined. Employment continued to increase in August and consumer prices rose at a slower pace.

 

Industrial production decreased by 0.1 percent from the previous month in July as services (up 0.3%, m-o-m and up 4.7%, y-o-y) went up but manufacturing (down 1.3%, m-o-m and up 1.5%, y-o-y) declined.

 

Retail sales (down 0.3%, m-o-m and down 1.9%, y-o-y), facilities investment (down 3.2%, m-o-m and down 2.2%, y-o-y) and construction investment (down 2.5%, m-o-m and up 2.0%, y-o-y) all declined in July.

 

Exports rose by 6.6 percent year-on-year in August led by petroleum products and cars. Average daily exports increased by 2.2 percent from a year ago to US $2.36 billion in August 2022 from US $2.31 billion in August 2021.

 

The consumer sentiment index (CSI) increased by 2.8 points in August to 88.8 from the previous month. The business survey index (BSI) for the entire sector also went up by 1 point to 81, and the BSI outlook for September 2022 rose by 3 points to 82.

 

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index for July increased by 0.5 points and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index fell by 0.3 points.

 

The economy added 807,000 jobs year-on-year in August and the unemployment rate fell by 0.5 percentage points from a year ago to 2.1 percent.

 

The consumer prices grew by 5.7 percent year-on-year in August due to a slower increase in petroleum prices and the core inflation rose by 4.4 percent.

 

In August, Korean treasury yields rose, the won weakened, and stock prices returned to decline after increases at the beginning of the month as concerns regarding the US tightening policy were re-emphasized.

 

Housing prices decline is faster in August (-0.08% -0.29%, m-o-m), and prices of Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) also saw a faster decline (-0.08% -0.28%, m-o-m).

 

While the economy has continued to improve gradually due to recovery in employment and in-person service industries, amid continued high inflation caused by external factors, there are concerns of economic slowdown such as a drag on export recovery in the future.  

 

Internationally, with global inflationary pressure continuously rising, financial market volatility and global economic downside risks persist due to major economies’ rapid interest rate increases, China’s lockdown measures and the uncertainty of energy supply and demand.  

 

The government will make its utmost efforts to boost the private economy, strengthen risk management efforts and push ahead with structural reforms for each sector as well as to take comprehensive measures to stabilize people’s livelihood following the Chuseok holiday by taming prices and helping recover from the devastation caused by typhoons.

 

Key Statistics


Employment


 

2020

2021

2022

Annual

Annual

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Number of employed (million)

26.90

27.27

27.60

27.68

27.74

27.80

27.30

26.95

27.40

27.75

28.08

28.49

28.48

28.47

28.41

Employment rate (%)

60.1

60.5

61.2

61.3

61.4

61.5

60.4

59.6

60.6

61.4

62.1

63.0

62.9

62.9

62.8

(Seasonally adjusted)

60.1

60.5

60.7

60.9

60.9

60.9

61.0

61.2

62.1

61.8

62.1

62.4

62.2

62.2

62.3


Consumer Price Index

                                                                                         (%)

 

2021

2022

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

y-o-y

2.6

2.3

2.6

2.6

2.4

3.2

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.7

4.1

4.8

5.4

6.0

6.3

5.7

m-o-m

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.5

0.2

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.5

-0.1

 

Mining, Manufacturing, Electricity and Gas Production

                (Percentage change from the previous period, %)


2020

2021

2022

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2¹

May

Jun¹

Jul¹

Total Production2

m-o-m,

q-o-q

-

-

3.7

-0.6

1.0

1.1

3.8

-1.6

0.3

1.7

-1.3

y-o-y

-0.3

7.4

4.7

13.1

5.8

6.4

4.7

4.1

7.5

1.3

1.5

Manufacturing

Production

m-o-m,

q-o-q

-

-

3.9

-0.7

0.9

1.3

3.9

-1.7

0.2

1.6

-1.5

y-o-y

-0.2

7.6

4.9

13.4

5.8

6.5

4.7

4.3

7.9

1.3

1.5

Shipments (m-o-m, q-o-q)

-2.2

5.7

2.4

-0.7

-1.1

1.3

3.0

-3.0

0.8

-3.1

0.4

Inventory(m-o-m, q-o-q)

0.5

11.5

-1.0

-0.2

7.4

5.0

0.8

3.5

-2.2

5.4

1.4

Production capacity (y-o-y)

1.6

1.1

1.6

1.3

1.0

0.4

-0.8

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

0.1

Average operation ratio4

71.1

74.4

74.1

73.7

74.2

75.4

77.9

76.2

75.6

76.4

75.2

1. Preliminary

2. Mining, Manufacturing, Electricity and Gas Production

3. End-point (month, quarter, and year)

4. Average operation ratio for the month (or quarter)

  

Service Output

           (Percentage change from the previous period, %)

 

2020

2021

2022

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annul

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2¹

May

Jun¹

Jul¹

Service output

-2.0

-2.9

-1.5

2.2

0.9

4.4

0.6

1.7

1.1

1.5

0.0

2.7

1.0

-0.2

-0.3

      1. Preliminary


Retail Sales

(Percentage change from the previous period, %)

 

2020

2021

2022

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2¹

May

Jun¹

Jul¹

Retail sales

-0.2

 -5.9

-5.3

-0.4

1.1

5.9

1.7

2.2

0.8

1.1

-1.1

-1.1

-0.1

-1.0

-0.3

y-o-y

-

-2.8

1.8

1.5

-1.0

-

6.7

5.0

5.6

6.4

2.8

-0.2

0.7

-1.5

-1.9

1. Preliminary

 

Facility Investment Index

     (Percentage change from the previous period, %)

 

2020

2021

2022

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4¹

Q1

Q2¹

Jun¹

Jul¹

Facility investment index

5.9

-2.0

2.5

2.9

1.4

9.6

6.0

0.7

-0.8

-0.2

0.2

-1.3

4.0

-3.2

y-o-y

-

7.9

5.7

7.7

3.0

-

12.4

13.2

6.2

6.2

-1.3

-2.5

-0.7

-2.2

1. Preliminary

 

Construction Completed

 (Percentage change from the previous period, %)

 

2020

2021

2022

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4¹

Q1

Q2¹

Jun¹

Jul¹

Construction Completed

(Constant)

-2.1

1.7

-2.3

-2.5

1.3

-6.7

-5.2

-1.9

-1.1

4.1

-1.9

1.4

-1.2

-2.5

y-o-y

-

1.2

-3.6

-2.2

-3.2

-

-9.0

-7.2

-8.1

-2.9

-1.5

2.1

1.5

2.0

1. Preliminary

Exports and Imports

 (US$ billion, y-o-y, %)

 

2019

2020

2021

2022

Annual

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3  


Q4

Q1

Q2

Jul

Aug

Aug

Exports

542.23

512.50

644.40

146.40

156.73

164.54

53.17

176.73

173.40

177.13

60.57

56.67

(y-o-y, %)

-10.4

-5.5

25.7

12.5

42.0

26.5

34.7

24.5

18.4

13.0

9.2

6.6

Average daily exports

1.99

1.88

2.36

2.22

2.27

2.40

2.31

2.54

2.67

2.59

2.58

2.36

Imports

503.34

467.63

615.09

136.60

149.23

156.89

51.58

172.37

177.29

183.70

65.37

66.15

(y-o-y, %)

-6.0

-7.1

31.5

12.4

37.7

37.5

44.0

39.4

29.8

23.1

21.8

28.2

Average daily imports

1.85

1.71

2.25

2.07

2.16

2.29

2.24

2.48

2.73

2.68

2.78

2.76

 

Composite Indices of Coincident and Leading Indicators

                                                                                           (Points)

 

2021

2022

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun¹

Jul¹

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index

101.0

101.5

101.6

101.5

101.1

102.1

101.3

101.8

m-o-m (points)

0.7

0.5

0.1

-0.1

-0.4

0.1

0.1

0.5

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index

100.4

100.3

100.0

99.8

99.6

99.6

99.7

99.4

m-o-m (points)

-0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

0.0

0.1

-0.3

1. Preliminary




Please refer to the attached pdf.




Ministry of Economy and Finance
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