4th Taskforce on Population Policy
4th TF to Respond to Accelerated Demographic Transition
The government announced the 4th Population Policy Taskforce and its major areas and discussion directions at the Meeting of the Central Economic Response Headquarters, on February 10. As the scope and speed of Korea’s demographic transition has expanded due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Korean government plans to launch the 4th Population Policy taskforce this year following the three previous taskforces.
According to the population projections released in December last year, the drop in the working age population has expanded and the shrinking society characterized by decreases in the school age population and military manpower has become visible, and the aging of baby boomers is expected to lead to a rapidly aging society.
The working age population is projected to decrease by 1.77 million people or 4.7 percent down over the next five years, which is a bigger drop from the 2019 projections, and is expected to fall to less than half over the next 50 years.
Due to the long-term trend of low birth rate, the school age population will decrease sharply over the next five years, especially for elementary school, and university students. Military manpower is also projected to drop significantly over the next five years. By region, population concentration in the Seoul metropolitan area will lead to a decrease in regional population. Busan, Daegu and other metropolitan cities are expected to see more than 10 percent population declines in 20 years.
As the baby boomers began reaching age 65 in 2020, Korea’s aging demographic is set to become a super-aged society by 2025, making it the world’s fastest aging society. The cost of supporting the elderly population is estimated to double by 2033, and increase fivefold by 2070. Also, Korea’s total fertility rate is projected to hit a low of 0.70 in 2024 in part due to the Covid-19 pandemic, requiring focused response within a short period of time.
Basic Directions for Discussion
In the 4th Population Policy Taskforce, the government will focus on the following four areas to respond to the demographic transition:
- Expand and reinforce the working age population
- Strengthen adaptability to a shrinking society
- Preparing for an aged society
- Responding to a low fertility rate
Depending on the time of the realization of the population shock, the government will timely respond through three stages: short-term (requires imperative response within five years), medium-term (requires outcomes within 10 years), and long-term (population shock is likely to hit after 10 years) and come up with response strategies accordingly. The government will plan meetings with experts and announce strategies and detailed measures for each area starting this July.
Please refer to the attached pdf
