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Current Economic Situation, October 2021

  • DivisionEconomic Policy Bureau - Economic Analysis Division
  • DateOctober 19, 2021
  • Tel+82 44 215 2730

Current Economic Situation, October 2021

 

Construction and Employment Improve,

Manufacturing and Services Slowing

 

Manufacturing, services, retail sales and facilities investment slowed in August, construction investment improving, though.  Employment continued an upward trajectory in September and consumer price inflation slowed somewhat. 

 

Industrial production fell 0.2 percent from the previous month in August due to weak manufacturing (down 0.7%, m-o-m and up 9.6%, y-o-y) and services (down 0.6%, m-o-m and up 4.4%, y-o-y). Compared with a year ago, industrial production rose 6.0 percent.

 

Construction investment (up 1.6%, m-o-m and up 0.3%, y-o-y) improved in August, and retail sales (down 0.8%, m-o-m and up 3.8%, y-o-y) slowed, as well as facilities investment (down 5.1%, m-o-m and up 11.8%, y-o-y).

 

Exports rose 16.7 percent year-on-year in September backed by strong semiconductors, petrochemicals and other major exports.  Average daily exports, an indicator calculated according to the days worked, rose 27.9 percent from a year ago (US $2.08 billion, September 2020 US $2.66 billion, September 2021).

 

The consumer sentiment index (CSI) rose 1.3 points in September to 103.8.  The business sentiment index (BSI) for the manufacturing sector declined 5 points to 90, and the BSI outlook for October dropped 3 points to 93. 

 

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index for August remained flat at 101.3, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index dropped 0.3 points to 102.4.

 

The economy added 671,000 jobs year-on-year in September and the unemployment rate fell 0.9 percentage points from a year ago to 2.7 percent.

 

Consumer prices rose 2.5 percent year-on-year in September due to high prices of oil products and personal services.  Core inflation rose 1.9 percent.

 

Stock prices fell in September amid rising inflation concerns and monetary policy shifts in major economies.  The won weakened and Korea treasury yields went up.

 

Housing prices continued to rise in August (up 0.85% up 0.96%, m-o-m), as well as Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices (up 0.59% up 0.63%, m-o-m).

 

The economy has seen exports stay strong and employment keep improving.  However, uncertainties linger over close-contact services. 

 

Global economic recovery will continue, but at a slower pace given rising commodities prices and supply shortages.

 

The government will work on timely implementation of its economy-boosting measures, such as those to absorb pandemic shocks and maintain the recovery momentum, as well as will work to keep inflation in check and help businesses go back to normal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Key Statistics

 

 

 

Employment

 

 

2020

2021

Annual

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Number of employed (million)

26.90

27.08

27.01

27.09

27.24

26.53

25.82

26.37

26.92

27.21

27.55

27.64

27.65

27.60

27.68

Employment rate (%)

60.1

60.4

60.3

60.4

60.7

59.1

57.4

58.6

59.8

60.4

61.2

61.3

61.3

61.2

61.3

(Seasonally adjusted)

60.1

60.0

59.8

59.8

60.1

59.6

58.9

60.1

60.3

60.4

60.6

60.6

60.7

60.7

60.8

 

 

Consumer Price Index

 

                                                                                         (%)

 

2020

2021

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

y-o-y

0.7

1.0

0.1

0.6

0.5

0.6

1.1

1.5

2.3

2.6

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.5

m-o-m

0.6

0.7

-0.6

-0.1

0.2

0.8

0.5

0.1

0.2

0.1

-0.1

0.2

0.6

0.5

 

 

Mining and Manufacturing

 

            (Percentage change from the previous period, %)

Mining and Manufacturing2

2020

2021

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

May

Jun

Jul¹

Aug¹

Mining

(q-o-q,

m-o-m)

-

-0.6

-6.5

6.0

2.9

3.4

-1.2

-1.3

2.3

0.2

-0.7

(y-o-y)

-0.4

4.6

-5.9

0.2

0.0

4.4

12.7

14.5

11.5

7.7

9.6

Manufacturing

Production

(q-o-q,

m-o-m)

-

-0.6

-6.9

6.4

3.1

3.4

-1.2

-1.7

2.5

-0.2

-0.4

(y-o-y)

-0.3

5.0

-6,0

0.4

-0.1

4.4

13.2

14.8

11.8

7.3

10.1

Inventory³

-

2.2

-0.1

-0.3

-1.2

-2.3

-1.0

0.1

-0.7

1.7

4.9

Shipments

-

-2.0

-6.4

6.7

3.5

2.5

-1.4

-0.7

-0.3

0.1

-2.5

Average operation ratio

71.3

73.0

66.9

71.5

73.8

75.1

73.4

73.0

73.7

73.9

74.1

Production capacity (y-o-y)

0.8

0.6

1.0

1.1

0.4

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.4

0.8

0.9

                             

1. Preliminary

2. Including mining, manufacturing, and electricity and gas production

3. End-period

 

 

Service Output

 

           (Percentage change from the previous period, %)

 

2019

2020

2021

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Jun

Jul¹

Aug¹

Service output

1.4

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.4

-2.0

-2.9

-1.3

2.0

0.9

0.7

1.7

1.6

0.1

-0.6

1. Preliminary

 

 

Retail Sales

 

  (Percentage change from the previous period, %)

 

2019

2020

2021

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Jun

Jul¹

Aug¹

Retail sales

2.4

1.5

0.2

-0.1

2.0

 -0.2

-5.7

5.9

-1.1

0.9

1.7

2.7

1.4

-0.5

-0.8

y-o-y

-

1.6

2.0

2.3

3.3

-

-2.9

2.0

1.6

-1.2

6.4

4.4

1.6

7.9

3.8

1. Preliminary

 

 

Facility Investment Index

 

(Percentage change from the previous period, %)

 

2019

2020

2021

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Jul¹

Aug¹

Facility investment index

-5.7

-3.4

2.1

2.0

3.4

6.0

-1.0

2.7

2.2

0.8

6.9

0.7

2.0

-5.1

y-o-y

-

-18.2

-6.3

-1.3

4.5

-

8.1

5.8

7.7

2.8

11.9

12.7

10.9

11.8

1. Preliminary

 

 

Construction Completed

 

(Percentage change from the previous period, %)

 

2019

2020

2021

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Jul¹

Aug¹

Construction completed (constant)

-2.3

2.6

0.2

-2.2

1.0

-4.1

-0.7

-2.9

-2.8

2.5

-3.6

-2.4

-1.8

1.6

y-o-y

-

-5.9

-2.4

-3.4

2.1

-

-0.8

-5.5

-4.2

-5.3

-7.2

-5.3

-8.0

0.3

1. Preliminary

 

 

Composite Indices of Coincident and Leading Indicators

 

                                                                                     (Points)

 

2021

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul¹

Aug¹

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index

99.4

99.6

100.1

101.1

101.2

101.2

101.3

101.3

m-o-m (points)

-0.2

0.2

0.5

1.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index

101.4

101.6

101.7

102.2

102.5

102.8

102.7

102.4

m-o-m (points)

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.5

0.3

0.3

-0.1

-0.3

1. Preliminary

 

 

Exports and Imports

 

(US$ billion, y-o-y, %)

 

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Annual

Annual

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Sep¹

Exports

573.69

604.86

542.22

512.50

130.18

110.34

130.07

47.82

141.90

146.42

156.75

164.52

55.83

(y-o-y, %)

15.8

5.4

-10.4

-5.5

-1.9

-20.3

-3.5

7.1

4.1

12.5

42.1

26.5

16.7

Average daily exports

2.13

2.24

1.99

1.88

1.91

1.65

1.86

2.08

2.09

2.22

2.27

2.40

2.66

Imports

478.48

535.20

503.34

467.63

124.50

108.39

114.07

39.40

123.68

136.34

149.00

156.84

51.62

(y-o-y, %)

17.8

11.9

-6.0

-7.1

-1.9

-15.8

-8.7

1.7

-1.7

12.2

37.5

37.5

31.0

Average daily imports

1.78

1.98

1.85

1.71

1.79

1.62

1.63

 1.71

1.82

2.07

2.16

2.29

2.46

1. Preliminary

 

 

Please refer to the attached pdf

 

 

Ministry of Economy and Finance
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