바로가기 메뉴
본문 바로가기
메인메뉴 바로가기
PRESS RELEASES

Current Economic Situation, May 2019

  • DivisionEconomic Policy Bureau - Economic Analysis Division
  • DateMay 17, 2019
  • Tel0442152736

Current Economic Situation, May 2019

 

Industrial Activities Improve and Consumer Prices Stay Stable

 

 

Industrial activities improved in March due to a low base effect from the previous month.  Employment continued to grow in April, although unemployment went up, and consumer prices stayed stable. 

 

Industrial production rose in March (up 1.1%, m-o-m) as mining and manufacturing (up 1.4%, m-o-m), service output (down 0.2%, m-o-m) and construction completed (up 8.9%, m-o-m) all improved.

 

Consumption and investment increased in March:  Retail sales rose (down 0.5% → up 3.3%, m-o-m) as well as facility investment (down 10.2% →up 10.0%, m-o-m) and construction completed (down 6.5% → up 8.9%, m-o-m). 

 

Exports declined 2.0 percent year-on-year in April, falling for a fifth consecutive month, due to weak global demand as well as low semiconductor prices.

 

The April consumer sentiment index (CSI) improved 1.8 points to 101.6, a fifth increase in a row, and the business sentiment index (BSI) improved 2 points to 75, the outlook for May climbing 1 point to 77. 

 

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell 0.1 points in March, as well as the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index, to 98.5 and 98.2, respectively.

 

The economy added 170,000 jobs year-on-year in April:  Service jobs continued to increase and a decline in manufacturing jobs slowed.  The unemployment rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 4.4 percent compared with a year ago.

 

Consumer prices in April rose 0.6 percent year-on-year as service prices stayed stable, as well as oil product prices.

 

In April KOSPI went down in the latter half of the month and the won continued to weaken.  Treasury bond yields fluctuated.

 

Housing prices continued to decline in April (down 0.21%, m-o-m), along with Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices (down 0.29%, m-o-m).  Housing transactions fell.

 

The economy over the first quarter of this year had to deal with a slowdown in major indicators as mining and manufacturing, facility investment and exports all declined amid a faster-than-expected global economic slowdown and weak semiconductor markets.

 

There are uncertainties arising from Brexit in addition to US-China trade tensions, which may lead to increased volatility in the international financial market, as well as a further slowdown in the global economy.

 

The government will strengthen its risk management and get ready for the spending of the supplementary budget as soon as approved by the National Assembly, and will continue to work to successfully implement the measures drawn up to promote investment, encourage exporters and improve regulations.  

 

 

Key Statistics

 

Employment

 

 

2016

2017

2018

2019

Annual

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Apr

Q1

Mar

Apr

Number of employed (million)

26.41

26.73

27.00

26.88

26.82

26.28

27.02

27.02

26.97

26.87

26.46

26.81

27.04

Employment rate (%)

60.6

60.8

61.4

61.0

60.7

59.6

61.2

61.1

60.9

60.9

59.6

60.4

60.8

(Seasonally adjusted)

60.6

60.8

60.8

60.9

60.7

60.9

60.7

60.5

60.7

60.7

60.9

61.0

60.7

 

 

 

Consumer Price Index

 

 

2018

2019

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

y-o-y

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.1

1.4

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.3

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.6

m-o-m

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.2

0.9

0.8

-0.2

-0.7

-0.3

-0.1

0.4

-0.2

0.4

 

 

 

Mining and Manufacturing Production

            (q-o-q, m-o-m, %)

Mining and Manufacturing2

2018

2019

Annual

Q1

Q4

Mar

Q1¹

Jan

Feb¹

Mar¹

Mining

(q-o-q, m-o-m)

-

-0.4

-1.5

-1.1

-2.9

0.2

-3.4

1.4

(y-o-y)

1.3

-1.1

4.3

-2.5

-2.1

-0.2

-3.4

-2.8

Manufacturing

Production

(q-o-q, m-o-m)

-

-0.4

-1.4

-0.9

-3.1

0.3

-3.4

1.5

(y-o-y)

1.2

-1.4

4.6

-2.8

-2.1

0.0

-3.5

-2.9

Inventory³

8.0

1.9

5.7

0.8

-1.6

-1.7

0.7

-0.6

Shipments

-0.2

-1.1

-1.5

-0.7

-2.0

1.0

-2.6

2.5

Average operation ratio

73.5

72.8

73.1

72.1

71.9

73.6

70.5

71.5

Production capacity (y-o-y)

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

-0.7

-0.6

-1.0

-0.5

1. Preliminary

2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry

3. End-period

 

 

 

 

Service Output

(q-o-q, m-o-m, %)

 

2016

2017

2018

2019

Annual

Annual

Q3

Q4

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1¹

Jan

Feb¹

Mar¹

Service

activity index

2.6

1.9

1.1

0.0

2.1

0.9

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.1

1.3

-1.6

0.2

1. Preliminary

 

 

Retail Sales

(q-o-q, m-o-m, %)

 

2016

2017

2018

2019

Annual

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1¹

Jan

Feb¹

Mar¹

Retail sales

3.9

1.9

4.3

2.1

0.6

-0.2

-0.1

1.3

0.3

-0.5

3.3

(y-o-y)

-

-

-

5.3

5.0

3.8

3.0

1.7

4.3

-1.8

2.4

1. Preliminary

 

 

Facility Investment Index

(q-o-q, m-o-m, %)

 

2016

2017

2018

2019

Annual

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Jan

Feb¹

Mar¹

Facility investment index

-1.3

14.1

-3.8

7.1

-7.6

-7.7

0.0

-5.4

1.9

-10.2

10.0

y-o-y

-

-

-

10.2

-4.8

-13.5

-6.0

-19.5

-17.0

-26.8

-15.5

1. Preliminary

 

 

Construction Completed

(q-o-q, m-o-m, %)

 

2016

2017

2018

2019

Annual

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1¹

Jan

Feb¹

Mar¹

Construction completed (constant)

15.4

10.5

-5.3

0.8

-4.1

-3.8

-3.7

3.0

3.5

-6.5

8.9

y-o-y

-

-

-

0.8

-3.5

-9.7

-7.9

-8.3

-10.7

-12.2

-2.9

 1. Preliminary

 

 

Composite Indices of Coincident and Leading Indicators

 

 

2018

2019

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan¹

Feb¹

Mar¹

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index

99.9

99.7

99.6

99.3

99.2

99.1

98.6

98.5

(m-o-m, points)

-0.2

-0.2

-0.1

-0.3

-0.1

-0.1

-0.5

-0.1

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index

99.9

99.6

99.3

99.1

98.9

98.6

98.3

98.2

(m-o-m, points)

-0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.1

1. Preliminary

 

Exports and Imports

(US$ billion, y-o-y, %)

 

2016

2017

2018

2019

Annual

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Apr

Q1

Mar

Apr¹

Exports

495.43

573.69

604.86

145.05

151.62

153.64

154.55

49.85

132.73

47.10

48.86

(y-o-y)

-5.9

15.8

5.4

9.8

3.1

1.7

7.7

-2.0

-8.5

-8.2

-2.0

Average daily exports

1.81

2.13

2.24

2.16

2.30

2.28

2.22

2.17

2.03

2.09

20.4

Imports

406.19

478.48

535.20

132.43

133.15

130.31

139.31

43.69

123.40

41.89

44.74

(y-o-y)

-6.9

17.8

11.9

13.7

13.0

7.8

12.9

15.1

-6.8

-6.7

2.4

Average daily imports

1.49

1.78

1.98

1.98

2.02

1.93

2.00

1.90

1.88

1.86

1.87

1. Preliminary

 

Please refer to the attached PDF.