Current Economic Situation, February 2021
Manufacturing and Retail Sales Rose,
Services and Construction Slowing
Manufacturing, retail sales and facilities investment improved from the previous month, services and construction investment declining. Job losses continued and consumer price inflation edged up.
Industrial production rose 0.5 percent from the previous month in December 2020. Mining and manufacturing rose (up 3.7%, m-o-m and up 3.4%, y-o-y), and services declined (down 1.1%, m-o-m and down 2.2%, y-o-y). Industrial production fell 0.3 percent year on year.
Retail sales improved (up 0.2%, m-o-m and down 2.0%, y-o-y), as well as facilities investment (up 0.9%, m-o-m and up 5.3%, y-o-y). Completed construction works fell (down 0.9%, m-o-m and down 2.5%, y-o-y).
Exports went up 11.4 percent year-on-year in January 2021 backed by the strong IT sector and more days worked (1 day). Average daily exports, an indicator calculated according to the days worked, improved 6.5 percent from a year ago (US $2.00 billion, January 2020 → US $2.13 billion, January 2021).
The consumer sentiment index (CSI) rose 4.2 points in January to 95.4. The business sentiment index (BSI) for the manufacturing sector improved 3 points to 85, and the BSI outlook for February went up 4 points to 81.
The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index for December stayed unchanged at 98.9, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.5 points to 103.
The economy lost 982,000 jobs year-on-year in January, and the unemployment rate rose 1.6 percentage points from a year ago to 5.7 percent.
Consumer price inflation edged up in January to a rise of 0.6 percent year-on-year due to high fresh food prices. Core inflation went up 0.9 percent.
KOSPI continued to rise in January on expectations of economic recovery, as well as due to a weak dollar. The won weakened, and Korea treasury yields went up for mid- to long-term debts amid globally increasing market interest rates and on supply concerns.
House price growth slowed in January (up 0.90% → up 0.79%, m-o-m), as well as Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices (up 0.97% → up 0.71%, m-o-m).
The economy has seen manufacturing and investment improving backed by strong exports.
However, uncertainties hang due to the stricter social distancing amid a third wave of coronavirus as personal services struggle, job markets worsen and domestic demand has yet to recover.
Expectations are growing of global economic recovery, after a slowdown in the fourth quarter amid resurgent virus, as new infections are slowing down, vaccine rollout is accelerated and major economies seek stimulus measures.
The government will work to expand COVID-19 support as the outbreak continues, which will include small business reliefs, unemployment benefits and public job creation.
Key Statistics
Employment
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
Annual
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q3
|
Q4
|
Annual
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q3
|
Q4
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
Jan
|
Number of employed (million)
|
27.12
|
26.46
|
27.26
|
27.38
|
27.39
|
26.90
|
26.75
|
26.85
|
27.07
|
26.95
|
27.09
|
27.24
|
26.53
|
25.82
|
Employment rate (%)
|
60.9
|
59.6
|
61.3
|
61.5
|
61.4
|
60.1
|
59.9
|
60.0
|
60.4
|
60.0
|
60.4
|
60.7
|
59.1
|
57.4
|
(Seasonally adjusted)
|
60.9
|
60.8
|
60.9
|
60.9
|
61.2
|
60.1
|
61.0
|
59.6
|
59.9
|
59.8
|
59.8
|
60.1
|
59.6
|
58.9
|
Consumer Price Index
(%)
|
2020
|
2021
|
Jan
|
Feb
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
May
|
Jun
|
Jul
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
Jan
|
y-o-y
|
1.5
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
0.1
|
-0.3
|
0.0
|
0.3
|
0.7
|
1.0
|
0.1
|
0.6
|
0.5
|
0.6
|
m-o-m
|
0.6
|
0.0
|
-0.2
|
-0.6
|
-0.2
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.6
|
0.7
|
-0.6
|
-0.1
|
0.2
|
0.8
|
Mining and Manufacturing
(Percentage change from the previous period, %)
Mining and Manufacturing2
|
2019
|
2020
|
Annual
|
Q4
|
Dec
|
Annual¹
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q3
|
Q4¹
|
Nov¹
|
Dec¹
|
Mining
|
(q-o-q,
m-o-m)
|
-
|
1.1
|
3.6
|
-
|
0.1
|
-7.1
|
5.7
|
3.7
|
0.3
|
3.7
|
(y-o-y)
|
-0.1
|
2.2
|
6.1
|
0.4
|
5.1
|
-5.1
|
1.0
|
0.6
|
0.5
|
3.4
|
Manufacturing
|
Production
|
(q-o-q,
m-o-m)
|
-
|
1.3
|
3.8
|
-
|
0.1
|
-7.5
|
6.2
|
3.8
|
0.4
|
3.7
|
(y-o-y)
|
0.1
|
2.4
|
6.9
|
0.5
|
5.5
|
-5.2
|
1.1
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
3.4
|
Inventory³
|
-2.9
|
-2.7
|
-2.5
|
1.4
|
4.6
|
-1.3
|
0.3
|
-2.3
|
-1.1
|
-0.2
|
Shipments
|
-0.6
|
-0.6
|
3.4
|
-2.0
|
-2.0
|
-6.5
|
6.7
|
3.9
|
0.4
|
1.3
|
Average operation ratio
|
73.2
|
74.1
|
75.1
|
71.3
|
73.5
|
66.5
|
71.2
|
74.1
|
73.9
|
74.5
|
Production capacity
(y-o-y)
|
-0.1
|
0.1
|
0.6
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.0
|
-0.1
|
1.5
|
1. Preliminary
2. Including mining, manufacturing, and electricity and gas production
3. End-period
Service Output
(Percentage change from the previous period, %)
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
Annual
|
Annual
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q3
|
Q4
|
Annual
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q3
|
Q4¹
|
Nov¹
|
Dec¹
|
Service output
|
2.3
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.6
|
0.7
|
-2.0
|
-3.0
|
-1.5
|
1.9
|
1.2
|
0.7
|
-1.1
|
1. Preliminary
Retail Sales
(Percentage change from the previous period, %)
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
Annual
|
Annual
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q3
|
Q4
|
Annual¹
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q3
|
Q4¹
|
Nov¹
|
Dec¹
|
Retail sales
|
4.3
|
2.4
|
0.9
|
0.5
|
0.3
|
1.9
|
-0.2
|
-6.4
|
6.5
|
-0.7
|
0.5
|
-0.9
|
0.2
|
y-o-y
|
-
|
-
|
1.6
|
2.0
|
2.2
|
3.4
|
-
|
-2.9
|
1.9
|
1.8
|
-1.3
|
-1.5
|
-2.0
|
1. Preliminary
Facility Investment Index
(Percentage change from the previous period, %)
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
Annual
|
Annual
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q3
|
Q4
|
Annual¹
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q3
|
Q4¹
|
Nov¹
|
Dec¹
|
Facility investment index
|
-3.6
|
-6.2
|
-5.0
|
3.2
|
1.0
|
4.3
|
6.0
|
-3.0
|
5.6
|
-0.2
|
2.8
|
3.5
|
0.9
|
y-o-y
|
-
|
-
|
-18.7
|
-6.7
|
-1.9
|
3.7
|
-
|
7.0
|
6.3
|
7.8
|
3.5
|
5.4
|
5.3
|
1. Preliminary
Construction Completed
(Percentage change from the previous period, %)
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
Annual
|
Annual
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q3
|
Q4
|
Annual¹
|
Q1
|
Q2
|
Q3
|
Q4¹
|
Nov¹
|
Dec¹
|
Construction completed (constant)
|
-4.2
|
-6.9
|
1.0
|
-1.8
|
-3.5
|
1.0
|
-2.3
|
4.1
|
-4.6
|
-4.1
|
3.6
|
4.5
|
-0.9
|
y-o-y
|
-
|
-
|
-10.2
|
-6.8
|
-8.2
|
-2.9
|
-
|
0.3
|
-4.1
|
-2.1
|
-3.0
|
1.7
|
-2.5
|
1. Preliminary
Composite Indices of Coincident and Leading Indicators
(Points)
|
2020
|
May
|
Jun
|
Jul
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Nov¹
|
Dec¹
|
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index
|
96.8
|
97.0
|
97.2
|
97.6
|
97.9
|
98.3
|
98.9
|
98.9
|
m-o-m (points)
|
-0.8
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.4
|
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.6
|
0.0
|
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index
|
99.4
|
99.9
|
100.3
|
100.9
|
101.4
|
101.8
|
102.5
|
103.0
|
m-o-m (points)
|
-0.3
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
0.6
|
0.5
|
0.4
|
0.7
|
0.5
|
1. Preliminary
Exports and Imports
(US$ billion, y-o-y, %)
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
Annual
|
Annual
|
Annual
|
Annual
|
Q1
|
Jan
|
Q2
|
Q3
|
Q4
|
Dec
|
Jan¹
|
Exports
|
573.69
|
604.86
|
542.22
|
512.50
|
130.18
|
43.10
|
110.34
|
130.07
|
141.90
|
51.33
|
48.02
|
(y-o-y, %)
|
15.8
|
5.4
|
-10.4
|
-5.5
|
-1.9
|
-6.6
|
-20.3
|
-3.5
|
4.1
|
12.4
|
11.4
|
Average daily exports
|
2.13
|
2.24
|
1.99
|
1.88
|
1.91
|
2.00
|
1.65
|
1.86
|
2.09
|
2.14
|
2.13
|
Imports
|
478.48
|
535.20
|
503.34
|
467.63
|
121.50
|
42.72
|
108.39
|
114.07
|
123.68
|
44.46
|
44.25
|
(y-o-y, %)
|
17.8
|
11.9
|
-6.0
|
-7.1
|
-1.9
|
-5.4
|
-15.8
|
-8.7
|
-1.7
|
2.2
|
3.6
|
Average daily imports
|
1.78
|
1.98
|
1.85
|
1.71
|
1.79
|
1.99
|
1.62
|
1.63
|
1.82
|
1.86
|
1.97
|
1. Preliminary
Please refer to the attached pdf