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2019 ECONOMIC POLICIES
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Current Economic Situation, November 2020

  • DivisionEconomic Policy Bureau - Economic Analysis Division
  • DateNovember 13, 2020
  • Tel0442152730

Current Economic Situation, November 2020

 

Production and Consumption Improve,

Employment Staying Weak

 

Production indicators, as well as expenditure indicators, improved in September. 

 

Industrial production rose 2.3 percent from the previous month in September.  Mining and manufacturing increased (up 5.4%, m-o-m and up 8.0%, y-o-y), as well as services output (up 0.3%, m-o-m and up 0.0%, y-o-y).  Industrial production improved 3.4 percent year on year.

 

Retail sales (up 1.7%, m-o-m and up 4.4%, y-o-y) rose.  Facilities investment (up 7.4%, m-o-m and up 16.8%, y-o-y) and completed construction works (up 6.4%, m-o-m and up 6.3%, y-o-y) went up.

 

Exports declined 3.6 percent year-on-year in October due to fewer days worked (2 days).  Average daily exports, an indicator calculated according to the days worked, went up 5.6 percent from a year ago (US $2.03 billion (October 2019) US $2.14 billion (October 2020)).

 

The consumer sentiment index (CSI) jumped by 12.2 points in October to 91.6.  The business sentiment index (BSI) for the manufacturing sector rose 11 points to 79, and the BSI outlook for November went up 8 points to 76. 

 

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index for September increased 0.3 points to 97.9, and the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index rose 0.4 points to 101.3

 

The economy lost 421,000 jobs year-on-year in October, and the unemployment rate rose 0.7 percentage points from a year ago to 3.7 percent.

 

Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent from a year ago in October as government support for cell phone service fees brought down public service prices.  Core inflation rose 0.1 percent.

 

KOSPI struggled in October amid growing concerns over the resurging virus in major economies.  The won strengthened due to a strong yuan and Korea treasury yields increased in line with rising market interest rates.

 

Home price growth continued to slow down in October (up 0.42% up 0.32%, m-o-m), and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices rose at a slower rate (up 0.53% up 0.47%, m-o-m).

 

Although the economy has seen exports and production improving, as well as consumption and investment, services and employment remain weak and there are uncertainties over coronavirus resurging in major economies. 

 

Worries continue as to whether the virus resurgence and subsequent lockdowns in global economies would lead to slowing recovery, but at the same time expectations soar for COVID-19 vaccines.

 

The government will continue with its disease prevention efforts, while working to help the economy recover, such as by properly managing fiscal resources, as well as through measures to boost consumption and promote exports.

 

 

 

Key Statistics

 

 

Employment

 

 

2018

2019

2020

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Oct

Q1

Q2

Q3

Aug

Sep

Oct

Number of employed (million)

26.82

27.12

26.46

27.26

27.38

27.39

27.51

26.75

26.85

27.07

27.08

27.01

27.09

Employment rate (%)

60.7

60.9

59.6

61.3

61.5

61.4

61.7

59.9

60.0

60.4

60.4

60.3

60.4

(Seasonally adjusted)

60.7

60.9

60.8

60.8

60.9

61.2

61.1

61.1

59.5

59.9

60.1

59.8

59.8

 

 

 

Consumer Price Index

 

(%)

 

2019

2020

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

y-o-y

0.0

0.2

0.7

1.5

1.1

1.0

0.1

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.7

1.0

0.1

m-o-m

0.2

-0.6

0.2

0.6

0.0

-0.2

-0.6

-0.2

0.2

0.0

0.6

0.7

-0.6

 

 

 

Mining and Manufacturing

 

(Percentage change from the previous period, %)

Mining and Manufacturing2

2019

2020

Annual

Q3

Sep

Q1

Q2

Q3¹

Jul

Aug¹

Sep¹

Mining

(q-o-q,

m-o-m)

-

1.9

1.7

0.1

-7.1

5.7

1.9

-0.3

5.4

(y-o-y)

-0.1

0.3

1.8

5.1

-5.1

0.9

-2.4

-2.6

8.0

Manufacturing

Production

(q-o-q,

m-o-m)

-

1.5

-2.2

0.1

-7.5

6.1

2.3

-0.8

5.9

(y-o-y)

0.1

-0.6

1.6

5.5

-5.2

1.1

-2.2

-2.7

8.3

Inventory³

-2.9

1.9

1.0

4.6

-1.3

0.0

0.2

2.4

-2.5

Shipments

-0.6

0.0

0.0

-2.0

-6.5

6.6

2.2

-1.2

7.5

Average operation ratio

73.2

74.6

75.3

73.5

66.5

71.2

70.0

69.7

73.9

Production capacity

(y-o-y)

-0.1

-0.9

-1.1

1.1

1.6

1.6

1.2

1.6

1.9

1. Preliminary

2. Including mining, manufacturing, and electricity and gas production

3. End-period

 

 

 

Service Output

 

(Percentage change from the previous period, %)

 

2017

2018

2019

2020

Annual

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Jul

Aug¹

Sep¹

Service output

1.9

2.3

1.4

0.3

0.3

0.6

0.7

-3.0

-1.5

1.9

0.3

-1.0

0.3

1. Preliminary

 

 

Retail Sales

 

(Percentage change from the previous period, %)

 

2017

2018

2019

2020

Annual

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3¹

Jul

Aug¹

Sep¹

Retail sales

1.9

4.3

2.4

0.9

0.5

0.3

1.9

 -6.4

6.5

-0.7

-6.0

3.0

1.7

y-o-y

-

-

-

1.6

2.0

2.2

3.4

-2.9

1.9

1.8

0.5

0.3

4.4

1. Preliminary

 

 

Facility Investment Index

 

(Percentage change from the previous period, %)

 

2017

2018

2019

2020

Annual

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3¹

Jul

Aug¹

Sep¹

Facility investment index

14.4

-3.6

-6.2

-5.0

3.2

1.0

4.3

-3.0

5.6

-0.2

-0.8

-4.1

7.4

y-o-y

-

-

-

-18.7

-6.7

-1.9

3.7

7.0

6.3

7.8

8.1

-1.4

16.8

1. Preliminary

 

Construction Completed

 

(Percentage change from the previous period, %)

 

2017

2018

2019

2020

Annual

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3¹

Jul

Aug¹

Sep¹

Construction completed (constant)

11.4

-4.2

-6.9

1.0

-1.8

-3.5

1.0

4.1

-4.6

-3.6

0.9

-7.3

6.4

y-o-y

-

-

-

-10.2

-6.8

-8.2

-2.9

0.3

-4.1

-1.6

-1.2

-9.6

6.3

 1. Preliminary

 

 

Composite Indices of Coincident and Leading Indicators

 

 

2020

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug¹

Sep¹

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index

100.1

99.0

97.6

96.8

97.0

97.2

97.6

97.9

m-o-m (points)

-0.6

-1.1

-1.4

-0.8

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.3

Cyclical indicator of leading composite index

100.7

100.0

99.7

99.4

99.9

100.3

100.9

101.3

m-o-m (points)

0.0

-0.7

-0.3

-0.3

0.5

0.4

0.6

0.4

1. Preliminary

 

Exports and Imports

 

(US$ billion, y-o-y, %)

 

2017

2018

2019

2020

Annual

Annual

Annual

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Oct

Q1

Q2

Q3

Oct¹

Exports

573.69

604.86

542.22

132.65

138.49

134.73

136.36

46.65

130.23

110.37

130.37

44.98

(y-o-y, %)

15.8

5.4

-10.4

-8.5

-8.7

-12.3

-11.8

-15.0

-1.8

-20.3

-3.2

-3.6

Average daily exports

2.13

2.24

1.99

2.03

2.02

1.95

1.96

2.03

1.92

1.65

1.86

2.14

Imports

478.48

535.20

503.34

123.80

128.77

124.96

125.81

41.40

121.55

108.02

113.78

39.00

(y-o-y, %)

17.8

11.9

-6.0

-6.5

-3.3

-4.1

-9.7

-14.6

-1.6

-16.1

-8.9

-5.8

Average daily imports

1.78

1.98

1.85

1.89

1.88

1.81

1.81

1.80

1.79

1.61

1.63

1.86

1. Preliminary

 

 

Please refer to the attached pdf

 

Ministry of Economy and Finance
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